Логістичні виклики та перспективи розвитку зовнішньої торгівлі України у сфері постачання критичної сировини

Abstract

UK: У статті показано, як масштаби руйнування українських портів, залізниць та доріг під час війни — 30% східних ліній потребують відновлення, а транзитний час до ЄС на 40–50% довший — парадоксально прискорюють інтеграцію з Європою. Це відкриває шлях до розвитку видобутку рідкісноземельних ресурсів. Україна володіє 8700 родовищами зі 117 критично важливими корисними копалинами, включаючи 150 тис. тонн оксидів рідкоземельних елементів на Яструбецькому та 50 тис. тонн на Мостовому. Перспективна Угода між США та Україною щодо критично важливих корисних копалин може спрямувати 200–500 млн доларів США інвестицій на кожну ділянку в більш екологічний видобуток, нові залізничні/автомобільні коридори та переробку металургії. Успіх залежить від зниження ризиків логістики, оптимізації дозволів, забезпечення енергопостачання та дотримання екологічних правил ЄС для перетворення ренти від ресурсів на післявоєнне відновлення та глобальні ланцюги поставок чистих технологій.

EN: The article offers a comprehensive, evidence-based analysis of how Ukraine’s transport-logistics crisis, triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion, paradoxically creates an extraordinary window for systemic economic modernisation. It demonstrates that wartime destruction of rail, roads, bridges and Black-Sea ports—while causing immediate losses— also accelerates integration with the European Union, unlocks new investment flows and forces the adoption of innovative, greener technologies. Drawing on 2023 data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Infrastructure, Ukrzaliznytsia and the European Logistics Association, the study quantifies the damage: 30% of eastern rail lines need full reconstruction, 20% of electric locomotives are idle because of power cuts, average delivery times to EU markets have risen by 40–50% and logistics costs are up 30–40%. Export revenues collapsed in H1 2022 and, despite partial recovery in 2023-2024, remain far below pre-war levels. Steel, historically 80% of EU semi-finished imports from Ukraine and Russia combined, fell by 2.8% in volume and 23% in value in 2023, while metallurgical plants operate at only 20–75% capacity. The blockade of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Mariupol redirected 70% of cargo flows to congested rail and road corridors through Poland, Romania and Slovakia, exposing bottlenecks that the paper maps in detail. Yet the study argues that necessity is driving strategic reorientation. Ukraine is rapidly becoming a key east-west transit hub and is negotiating critical-minerals partnerships with the United States and the EU. The country hosts 8,700 deposits encompassing 117 of the 120 minerals critical to modern industry; among them are world-class reserves of rareearth elements (REEs), lithium, titanium and graphite vital for electronics, renewable energy, batteries and defence. The paper provides granular geological and economic data for the Yastrubetske (Zhytomyr region) and Mostove (Kirovohrad region) REE deposits. Yastrubetske alone contains 150 kt of REE oxides—dominantly neodymium, lanthanum and cerium—and could generate annual export earnings of USD 15–30 million while covering 10–15% of domestic demand. Mostove, a niobium-tantalum-rich carbonatite complex, adds another 50 kt of REEs, though both projects face ore grades below 0.3% and require capital-intensive, environmentally sensitive processing. Estimated start-up investments range from USD 200–500 million per site. The analysis frames these resource endowments within a broader geopolitical context. A prospective Ukraine-US “Critical Minerals Agreement” would diversify Western supply chains away from China, unlock US technology and finance, and channel royalties into a jointly managed Reconstruction Investment Fund. The paper stresses, however, that success hinges on solving acute logistical constraints: underdeveloped local roads and rail, regulatory delays, environmental risks in the Polissia forest zone, and proximity to active combat areas. It therefore proposes an integrated strategy combining infrastructure modernisation, transparent licensing, security guarantees, EU-compliant environmental standards and workforce training in geology and mining sciences. By synthesising trade statistics, geological surveys and policy documents, the article concludes that Ukraine’s simultaneous crises in transport and traditional exports can catalyse a high-tech, resource-driven recovery. If Kyiv secures long-term financing, advanced processing technologies and reliable corridors to EU markets, the country can transform from a war-torn logistics victim into a resilient, green-industry powerhouse and a critical supplier in global clean-tech value chains.