Теоретические модели анализа эколого-экономического развития

Abstract

RU: Цель статьи – анализ влияния эффектов экономического развития на окружающую среду, разработка комплексной модели эколого-экономического развития, основанной на обобщении уже изученных подходов и более широком представлении информации о параметрах устойчивого развития. Определены пути достижения Экологической кривой Кузнеца как условия устойчивого развития. Установлено, что достаточным условием обеспечения отсутствия ухудшения устойчивого развития является переход через точку максимального уровня загрязнения окружающей среды. Эта точка описывает выбросы загрязнений, учитывая эффект накопления загрязнения среды, который проявляется после превышения ассимиляционных возможностей природы. При этом во время экономического подъема влияние убытков от эмиссии диоксида углерода не так заметны, как во времена спадов. Поэтому преодоление постоянного увеличения концентрации загрязнения требует повышения экологической эффективности экономики и согласования действий между странами в долгосрочной перспективе.

EN: The article deals with the currently important problem of the influence of the effects of economic development on the environment. The purpose of the article is to analyze the impact of these effects, to develop an integrated model of ecological and economic development, which is based on the generalization of the already studied approaches and a broader presentation of information on the parameters of sustainable development. The object of research is the processes that help to achieve sustainable development. For the methodological support of the research, the created theoretical model of the analysis of ecological and economic development was used. The model allows determining the possibilities of achieving the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). In order to take into account the processes of accumulation and absorption of various greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, an approach to estimation the accumulated amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was proposed in the form of an integrated model. This model takes into account oceanic and biospheric absorption of hydrocarbon emissions from human activities. The article defines the ways to achieve the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) as a condition for achieving sustainable development. It was found that a sufficient condition, which should ensure the absence of deterioration of sustainable development, is the transition through the point of maximum level of environmental pollution. This point describes emissions of pollution, taking into account the effect of accumulation of environmental pollution, which begins to manifest itself after exceeding the assimilation capabilities of nature. At the same time, during economic recovery, the impact of losses from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is not as noticeable as during economic recessions. Therefore, overcoming the constant increase in pollution concentration will require a significant increase in the environmental efficiency of the economy and coordination of actions between countries in the long term. Based on this, the practical significance of the article lies in finding new ways to achieve sustainable development.